
The USDA released its first national oats condition report for 2023, giving an initial rating of 688, below the 1996-2022 average of 719 but the highest initial rating in three years. Oat prices had fallen more than half from a year earlier, to around $3.00 per bushel.
Poor early crop ratings in the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains and Texas support oat prices, though the crop is currently in better shape than last year's worst-ever rating.
After 35 past neutral report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.