ABARES cut its 2017-18 Australian wheat forecast by 1.3 million tonnes to 20.27 million, down 42% year on year. The biggest cut is in New South Wales, to 4.785 million tonnes, and rain during harvest is likely to hurt grain quality.
A lower Australian wheat crop with quality risk tightens export supply and supports wheat prices, especially for higher-protein grades.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.