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Pharos Research says urea rallied in Q2 FY2017/18 on supply shocks from US natural disasters and reduced Chinese production. It forecasts urea averaging $247/t for calendar 2018 as excess supply returns.
The forecast of easing urea prices through 2018 suggests a softer nitrogen cost outlook for fertilizer buyers after the recent rally.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.