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Nordea's chief strategist Jan von Gerich said the recent EUR/USD rise was not enough to worry the ECB, but it likely prompts dovish hints from President Draghi at the next meeting. Nordea sees some downside pressure on the euro and bond yields after that message.
Expected dovish ECB guidance would weaken the euro and modestly support the dollar, a minor factor for dollar-priced grain and meal values.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.