Northwest European ULSD cargoes fell to a 12-week low after record January loadings from Primorsk pressured the market. The market was also weighed down by seasonal post-holiday demand weakness.
The February/March spread stayed in backwardation.
Heavy Russian export supply and weak European demand push diesel differentials lower, which eases distillate costs for importers. Backwardation still points to firmer prices later in the quarter.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.