Platts assessed Northwest European cargo premiums to ICE gasoil futures at $10.50/mt on Friday, the weakest since January. Large ULSD volumes from the Americas and Baltic flooded the region, and some refinery sources suggested run cuts may follow.
Heavy transatlantic diesel arrivals and weak premiums point to bearish diesel demand conditions and possible refinery run cuts, which reduce product supply and can weigh on diesel values.
After 28 past bearish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.0% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.