
The International Grains Council forecast 2018-19 world wheat production at 742 million tonnes, down 15 million year on year and the first decline since 2012-13. USDA forecasts put U.S. wheat plantings at a 109-year low.
Analysts remain cautious because stocks remain comfortable.
A projected global production decline and small U.S. plantings could tighten wheat balance sheets, though ample stocks limit near-term price gains.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.