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India's northeast monsoon ended 10% below normal, but its uneven distribution across Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and the Deccan raises doubts about rabi crops. Staggered sowing is already visible in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, major wheat states.
Uneven rains and delayed sowing could trim Indian wheat and pulse output, supporting domestic prices and potentially import demand.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.