Malaysia suspended crude palm oil export taxes for three months from January 8 to April 7, 2018, aiming to lift prices and cut stockpiles that reached a two-year high of 2.56 million tons in November. The suspension ends early if CPO stocks fall to 1.6 million tons.
Analysts expect Malaysian exports to gain competitiveness against Indonesia, which pays a $50 per ton levy, with buying from China and India.
Removing the 5.5% export tax makes Malaysian palm oil cheaper for importers, shifting demand toward Malaysian supply and pressuring Indonesian export competitiveness, while the stock drawdown goal supports Malaysian prices in the near term.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.