
TA Securities said demand for Malaysian palm oil could rise if Indonesia raises its crude palm oil export levy to 10% to fund the B40 biodiesel mandate. The levy increase would add about US$26.49 per tonne to Indonesian costs, which already sit at a US$146.30 premium over Malaysian product.
The B40 rollout was delayed for infrastructure and technical reasons.
A higher Indonesian levy makes Indonesian palm oil less competitive, shifting demand toward Malaysian supply and supporting Malaysian prices. Buyers should watch whether the levy is actually implemented.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.