
UK fertiliser buyers have been slow to order spring nitrogen, with about 20% of the arable spring nitrogen market and up to 60% of grassland still unbooked. Urea is trading at £248-255/t delivered and UK-produced ammonium nitrate is available at a flat price through April.
Late ordering and a possible delivery squeeze in spring could lift UK delivered nitrogen prices, while firm urea markets suggest autumn prices will not fall early.
After 49 past bullish logistics events, Urea moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.2%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.