
The dollar fell to its lowest against the yen since November 2016 after President Trump proposed heavy tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The move raised trade war concerns, and the yen also gained after the Bank of Japan signaled it could consider exiting ultra-easy policy.
Steel and aluminum tariffs raise the risk of retaliation against US farm exports, which can pressure soybean and corn demand, while a weaker dollar tends to support US commodity prices.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.