
Former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan says an escalating trade war could push global investors to favor the yuan over the dollar. Trump had said he was ready to impose tariffs on another $267 billion of Chinese goods, and Beijing has vowed to retaliate.
A weaker dollar-yuan relationship and tariff escalation both threaten Chinese demand for US farm exports, pressuring soybean and feed prices.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.