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A Lipper Alpha analysis asks why EURUSD has diverged from interest rate spreads, noting that US rates have risen relative to Europe while the euro has held up. Correlations between rates and currencies are near their lowest in more than a decade.
Currency drivers beyond rate differentials affect the dollar's direction, which feeds into dollar-priced grain and oilseed export competitiveness.
lipperalpha.refinitiv.comThomson ReutersMar 7, 2018After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
