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Opec cut its second-quarter 2026 world oil demand forecast by 500,000 bpd to 105.07 million bpd and kept its full-year growth forecast unchanged. The report followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iran war, which has shut in Middle East production and pushed fuel prices sharply higher.
Governments are taking steps to conserve supplies.
A lower demand outlook eases some upward pressure, but the Hormuz disruption keeps crude supply tight and fuel costs high for feed transport and processing. Net direction for energy prices depends on whether supply losses outweigh weaker demand.
tradearabia.comLONDONMar 9, 2018After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
