Diversity of El Niño Variability Makes Prediction Challenging

After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 13, 2019WASDE Predicts Milk Production and prices Up for 2020 • Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlook • Iowa State University Extension and Outreach+6.9%
• Jan 20, 2017County-by-county variability of bioenergy crop yields in the U.S.+0.4%
• Mar 2, 2021Grain prices trend higher with more demand and climate variability: ABARES | Farm Online | ACT+6.1%
• Feb 27, 2020Big data helps farmers adapt to climate variability | EurekAlert!+2.6%
• Mar 28, 2018Weather phenomena such as El Niño affect up to two-thirds of the world’s harvests | Aalto University+3.3%

After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Jan 20, 2017County-by-county variability of bioenergy crop yields in the U.S.-1.9%
• Jan 13, 2026January USDA reports with plenty of surprises in both directions • Ag Decision Maker • Iowa State University Extension and Outreach+1.9%
• Feb 27, 2020Big data helps farmers adapt to climate variability | EurekAlert!+2.0%
• Mar 28, 2018Weather phenomena such as El Niño affect up to two-thirds of the world’s harvests | Aalto University-0.4%
• Mar 28, 2023New method combines commodity tracing and species data to quantify impacts of soy imports on biodiversity+5.5%

After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2021Grain prices trend higher with more demand and climate variability: ABARES | Farm Online | ACT-2.2%
• Mar 28, 2018Weather phenomena such as El Niño affect up to two-thirds of the world’s harvests | Aalto University+1.0%
• Jan 16, 2024Good yields after a challenging year - Mecardo-0.8%
• Oct 11, 2021Most of record production being used+2.0%
• Oct 22, 2023Mint Primer: Making sense of India’s record food production | Mint-2.5%