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Aalto University researchers report that large-scale climate oscillations such as El Niño affect about two-thirds of the world's cropland, based on a Nature Communications study. The study is the first global assessment covering ENSO, NAO and the Indian Ocean Dipole effects on food crop production.
The study highlights that better oscillation forecasts could be used in agricultural planning, which may reduce weather risk premiums over time. It has no immediate direct effect on near-term corn, soy or wheat supply.
aalto.fiMar 28, 2018After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 50 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
