USDA reported that calendar year-to-date grain barge tonnage through April 21 was 9.1 million tons, 14% below the three-year average and 27% below 2017. High water from February rains, lock repairs on the Ohio and earlier low water have slowed traffic and cut tow sizes.
Reduced barge throughput and higher river freight rates raise the cost of moving grain to Gulf export positions, supporting barge freight and widening basis at interior origins.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.