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As of April 17, about 43 percent of the continental US was in drought, with 1.7 percent in the worst D4 exceptional category. Drought has fueled wildfires and left winter wheat in its worst condition in 16 years, with the most extended D4 periods in parts of California, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas.
Poor winter wheat condition in the Plains tightens hard red wheat supplies and supports feed-grain prices, especially if dryness persists into the growing season. The scale of the drought makes this a significant supply risk.
fb.orgJohn Newton, Ph.D.Apr 25, 2018After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
