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Heavy snow and freezing hit winter wheat in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and Nebraska, causing lodging. New-crop wheat futures rose as much as 20 cents a bushel, and USDA rated 13 percent of winter wheat in poor or very poor condition.
Lodging cuts yields and may lower 2017/18 ending stocks, which would lift the marketing-year average price above the $4.30 projection.
fb.orgJohn Newton, Ph.D.May 3, 2017After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
