Traders are buying downside protection as OPEC and allies, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, discuss raising output by about 1 million barrels a day. Volatility on bearish options has risen to its highest since mid-February, and Brent has fallen about 7% from above $80 to near $75.
A planned increase in OPEC and non-OPEC supply would add barrels to the market and weigh on crude prices. Lower crude makes diesel and energy cheaper for feed mills and transport.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.