Oil fell below $45 a barrel as OPEC+ members failed to agree on postponing a planned January output increase before a ministerial meeting. Most participants in an informal gathering backed keeping production curbs into the first quarter, but the UAE and Kazakhstan opposed.
Failure to extend the curbs could restore about 1.9 million barrels a day of supply.
A possible return of roughly 1.9 million barrels a day would push the market toward surplus and pressure crude, with knock-on effects for energy and fertilizer costs.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.