
Wheat futures jumped 6.1% after arctic cold swept the U.S. Great Plains in early February. Temperatures in Kansas and Nebraska reportedly fell to around -20°C, raising winterkill concerns for dormant winter wheat.
Possible winterkill cuts Hard Red Winter supply, which tightens wheat availability and supports prices for feed buyers.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.