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New US sanctions on Iran could cut Iranian urea supply, which accounted for about 4.5 mt annually on world markets. India's urea imports were 6 mt in 2017-18, with a third from Iran, and urea prices have already risen about a fifth since July 2017 to $255/tonne.
Loss of Iranian urea would tighten global nitrogen supply and push up import costs, though analysts expect near-term prices to stay soft.
business-standard.comBusiness StandardMay 10, 2018After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
