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The Fertilizer Institute's chief economist, Veronica Nigh, expects more product innovation as geopolitics disrupt fertilizer supply chains. She suggests growers may turn to alternatives such as ammonium sulfate and triple superphosphate.
She also says China's 2026 fertilizer export restrictions will likely keep supplies unstable for the coming season.
China supplies about 40% of processed phosphate and 30% of ammonia and urea, so continued export curbs support nutrient prices and volatility. Substitution toward TSP and ammonium sulfate could shift demand between nutrient products.
brownfieldagnews.comNicole HeslipJan 29, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
