A McKinsey analysis states that RFS compliance costs have become a major expense for US refiners because of higher mandate volumes and rising RIN prices. The average basic ethanol RIN was about 70 cents per gallon in 2017 and fell to about 36 cents in April.
The article says refiners still see these costs as a major concern.
Lower RIN prices reduce refiner compliance costs and can ease pressure on refiners to cut biofuel demand. The analysis is a market and cost overview, with no direct new supply or demand shock for grains or meal.
After 1,419 past policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.