Rabobank estimates that an EU ban on palm oil biodiesel could push up to 2.6 million tonnes of crude palm oil onto other markets, since palm supplies about 3.5 million tonnes or 27% of EU biodiesel feedstock. Rapeseed and soyoil would likely gain in EU biofuel use.
Redirected palm volumes would pressure palm export prices, while the EU switch to rapeseed and soyoil would support those oilseed oils and crushing volumes.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.