
A Bloomberg-reported poll of 12 estimates puts Malaysian July palm stockpiles near 2.23 million tons, a 19-month high and a fifth monthly gain. Benchmark futures fell 1.7% to 4,175 ringgit by midday on Monday.
Higher stockpiles and sluggish overseas demand weigh on palm prices during the production peak. Firm Indian buying ahead of festivals and Indonesian biodiesel demand limit the downside.
After 96 past bearish report events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Monday 4 Aug saw futures fall midday on expectations of a 19-month-high Malaysian stock build, but the move in question is a +2.40% gain, so this explains bearish pressure rather than the rise; low-moderate relevance via the rebound being a bargain-buying reaction.
Futures fell 1.7% on Aug 4 on bearish stock expectations, creating the lower base that invited bargain buying and the rebound on Aug 5.