Loading up on Uncertainty

After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 24, 2018Uncertainties threaten optimism in global pork trade - Rabobank - Pig World+5.5%
• Jun 5, 2017China cancels soy orders as losses mount in crushing+1.3%
• Jan 18, 2024Soaring Chinese grain imports create unease on local market+1.1%
• Aug 1, 2022China is intensifying the import of soybean meal from Brazil, rejecting Ukrainian products+0.9%
• Jun 16, 2017U.S. Exports to Mexico Fall as Uncertainty Over Nafta Lingers-2.3%

After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Sep 22, 2017U.S. grains: Soy at six-week top on exports, yield uncertainty - Grainews-1.2%
• Jan 30, 2025Speculative fluctuations in grain and oilseed prices will increase due to uncertainty about duties and harvest in South America-0.3%
• Mar 13, 2026EU risks losing US soy imports under deforestation rules, Washington warns | Euractiv-3.7%
• Sep 30, 2024Sorghum, soybean export inspections up on week | News-Talk 1230 KFJB-2.6%
• Jul 3, 2024China poised for record July soybean imports on low prices-2.0%