China has accelerated permits to import Brazilian soybean meal, a product it previously did not allow, after a China-Brazil commission agreed on the deal. China historically took about 29% of its corn imports and 88% of its sunflower meal from Ukraine.
Brazilian corn exports to China could start as early as September-October, and Ukrainian sunflower meal demand prices fell sharply.
Brazilian soybean meal entering China diverts demand away from Ukrainian meal and corn, adding competition for world meal markets. Expanded Brazilian supply tends to weigh on soybean meal and corn prices.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.