China shuns U.S. crops ahead of deadline

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Sep 26, 2018Graphic: Crop chop - China shuns U.S. soybeans amid trade war, turns to Brazil+2.4%
• Aug 1, 2018Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War-1.6%
• Jun 9, 2025Decline of China's Soybean Meal Market Amid Rising Imports+1.2%
• Dec 23, 2021China to fall short on promises to U.S. as trade deal ends-0.1%
• Jul 29, 2025China's soymeal glut raises demand doubts ahead of US soybean export season | Reuters-2.0%

After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.

• May 12, 2026China eyes U.S. corn deal ahead of Trump-Xi summit Thursday+1.3%
• Jul 24, 2025Ahead of the Open | China buys U.S. corn - Pro Farmer+1.0%
• Mar 22, 2021China buying boatloads of U.S. corn+10.7%
• Mar 4, 2019U.S. and China Near a Trade Deal to Drop Tariffs-2.2%
• Nov 3, 2021China Willing to Buy $20 Billion of U.S. Ag in Year One - The Scoop+1.2%

After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Nov 2, 2018As China soy demand wavers, U.S. farmers turn back to grains-4.0%
• Feb 13, 2020U.S. grains: Soy up on prospects for Chinese demand - AgCanada+5.3%
• Oct 9, 2026China Needs $1.2B/Week in U.S. Ag Buys to Hit Trade Deal — Agribusiness Wire+4.0%
• Jan 16, 2020China's 'market condition' caveat on U.S. ag purchases adds to trade deal doubts-0.2%
• Aug 12, 2022First export of wheat under UN deal as two more ships depart Ukraine-2.3%