
Russian fertiliser exports are set to accelerate as capacity expansions outpace domestic demand, led by urea, MOP and NPKs. The government plans to raise nitrogen output to 12.3 million t by 2025, and potash output to 11.7 million t and phosphate output to 4 million t.
Russia's chemical fertiliser exports reached 34.3 million t in 2017.
Growing Russian export capacity adds future supply of urea and potash to global markets, which would weigh on prices over the coming years.
After 81 past bearish trade events, UREA moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.