Argentina's Treasury suspended for six months its schedule of gradual export tax cuts on soymeal and soyoil, which remain at 23%. The end-2019 target rate of 18% is now higher than the previously planned 15%.
Industry group CIARA expects a sharp drop in meal and oil exports in the coming season and plans to lobby for reversal.
Higher export taxes make Argentine meal and oil less competitive, reducing export supply and supporting world soymeal and soyoil prices, while also limiting Argentina's planned meal shipments to China during the US-China trade dispute.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 553 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.