Iranian ship brokers have doubled freight rates for non-Iranian vessels carrying fertilizer from Iran to China, from $14,000 to $30,000 per day, ahead of upcoming US sanctions. Traders say Iranian urea re-exported via China to South Asia and Africa is becoming harder to move.
Higher freight and sanctions-driven frictions reduce Iranian urea availability in export markets, which supports global urea prices.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.