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USDA's September report unexpectedly raised global wheat ending stocks by 2.33 million tonnes, despite lower Canadian and Australian crops. Russia was raised 3 million tonnes, India 2.7 million tonnes and Kazakhstan 1 million tonnes.
The market had expected further cuts and fell for two sessions before a partial recovery.
Higher global stocks from the USDA's upward revisions to Russia and India weigh on wheat values, reducing the cost of wheat in feed rations. The Australian stock upgrade is questioned, so the balance could shift if local tightness is confirmed.
stockandland.com.auMalcolm Bartholomaeus, Market AnalystSep 19, 2018After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
