
India is considering a liberal farm export policy that would fix permanent threshold quantities of farm commodities free from trade restrictions, even in low-supply years such as drought. Interministerial consultations are underway on a commerce-ministry-anchored farm trade policy aiming to lift farm exports from about $30 billion to nearly $60 billion by 2022.
If adopted, India would be less likely to clamp down on exports during shortages, which could add to global supply of rice, wheat and other grains and weigh on world prices over time, though the government is still in consultation.
After 100 past bearish policy events, RICE moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.