Powell says we're 'a long way' from neutral on interest rates

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• May 13, 2020Dollar up as Powell downplays chances of negative U.S. interest rates | Financial Post-0.4%
• Oct 25, 2021Dollar rises from one-month low on prospect of higher interest rates | Reuters+0.4%
• Jan 1, 2026Fed sees only one rate cut in 2026; no hike ahead, says Powell+0.3%
• Dec 15, 2021Latam FX drops on rising U.S. interest rate risk | Central bank | NDA News UK-0.1%
• Dec 18, 2024U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by another quarter point | CBC News+0.7%

After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 24, 2025ECB's Rehn says central bank may need to lower interest rates, Bloomberg News reports-0.0%
• Oct 25, 2021Dollar rises from one-month low on prospect of higher interest rates | Reuters-0.7%
• Sep 12, 2019European Central Bank cuts interest rates to record low - ABC News+0.5%
• Mar 7, 2019Euro Dips on Fresh ECB TLTRO Announcement, says no Interest Rate Rise Likely in 2019-0.1%
• Jul 26, 2018European Central Bank says rates will remain low for months | AP News-0.1%