Most Latin American currencies fell on December 14 as hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price data, with PPI up 9.6% year-on-year in November, boosted bets on an earlier Federal Reserve rate hike. The Chilean peso slipped 0.3% ahead of an expected 125 basis point central bank hike to 4.0%, while copper prices declined on COVID-19 disruptions in China.
A stronger dollar on earlier Fed tightening tends to weaken Latin American currencies, which raises the cost of imported feed inputs for buyers in the region and can pressure local demand. The copper decline also signals softer Chilean and Chinese industrial activity.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.