
Tunisia plans a 30 percent increase in phosphate output, about 5 million tons, in 2019. Its 2018 output is forecast at no more than 4 million tons, only half of its 2010 level.
The government has allocated TND140 million (about USD50 million) for the sector, and exports have fallen as production has risen in Morocco, Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
Planned Tunisian expansion would add to a global phosphate supply that is already in surplus, adding downward pressure on phosphate derivative prices. Weak Indian demand is also cited as a factor.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.