China's fertilizer output from January to August 2018 totaled 37.0 million MT, down 6.3% year on year. Urea output fell 7.6%, and urea exports were 2.4 million MT lower than a year earlier.
DAP exports were roughly flat year on year.
Lower Chinese urea and phosphate output and exports tighten global fertilizer supply and support prices. Higher fertilizer costs feed through into feed-grain production expenses.
After 176 past bullish trade events, UREA moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.