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The World Bank expects its Fertilizer Price Index to rise 2% in 2019 after a projected 9% gain in 2018. The index rose 8% in Q3 2018 on high energy costs and tight supplies.
Chinese urea exports are projected to fall by a third in 2018 after halving in 2017, following environmental closures of fertilizer plants.
Tighter Chinese urea and phosphate supply and higher energy costs support higher input costs for feed producers and farmers. Stronger fertilizer demand after record harvests also points to firmer nutrient prices into 2019.
blogs.worldbank.orgJohn Baffes, Wee Chian KohNov 30, 2018After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
