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The USDA's November WASDE raised projected U.S. soybean ending stocks to 955 million bushels, up 70 million on the month, as a lower production outlook and higher crush were offset by a cut in exports amid the China tariff dispute. Corn ending stocks were cut 77 million bushels to 1.736 billion, while wheat stocks fell 7 million bushels to 949 million.
Larger U.S. soybean carryover combined with reduced export demand from China is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices. Tighter corn carryout is mildly supportive for corn.
brownfieldagnews.comNov 8, 2018After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE cut corn ending stocks but raised soybean stocks on lower exports, and the global balance sheet and China's revised figures left the market bearish, so the corn drop fits a sell-the-news reaction.
