
USDA raised its 2018/19 ending stocks projections for US corn and soybeans, with corn carryover up 90 million bushels to 1.774 billion. Soybean carryover rose to 845 million bushels despite a higher domestic crush estimate.
US wheat ending stocks were unchanged at 935 million bushels, and the agency lowered its China soybean import estimate.
Larger corn and soybean carryout points to ample supplies and lower prices, while the reduced Chinese import estimate reflects weaker export demand from the trade dispute.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.