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Palm oil closed at its highest level since late July on concerns that dry weather and aging trees will hurt Indonesian output. Industry groups forecast production flat to 5% lower year on year, after earlier predicting a rise.
Soybean oil prices also provided support.
Lower Indonesian output, the world's largest palm producer, tightens global vegetable oil supply and supports prices. Stronger soybean oil adds further support as a substitute.
delinua.comraidSep 2, 2024After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, SBO moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On 2024-09-02 palm closed at its highest since late July on dry weather and aging-tree concerns, with output forecast flat to 5% lower and soyoil support, directly explaining the jump.
Concerns that dry weather and aging trees will cut Indonesian output (flat to 5% lower) pushed palm to a multi-week high, a direct supply-side driver heading into the move.
