
Experts called India's target of doubling agri exports to $60 billion by 2022 highly ambitious, noting exports fell from about $40 billion five years earlier to $36 billion in 2017-18. Analysts also doubted the government would keep its pledge to remove export curbs, since it tends to restrict exports when inflation rises.
Skepticism about the removal of export curbs means Indian farm export supply to world markets is likely to remain uncertain. This keeps a risk premium on Indian rice and other farm exports.
After 468 past policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.0% to +2.0%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.