
The Trump administration announced sanctions on Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA, aimed at shifting control of oil revenue away from Maduro. U.S. companies may still import Venezuelan oil, but the funds must be held in inaccessible accounts.
Sanctions on a major heavy-crude exporter to the U.S. may reduce supply to Gulf refiners and support crude prices. The impact is limited because U.S. imports are still permitted.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.