
The U.S. Wheat Associates mid-year report projects 2018/19 U.S. wheat exports at 27.2 MMT, 11 percent above last year. Sales data through December 13 show HRW exports down 33 percent year over year, while SRW, HRS and durum sales are up.
USDA's export forecast requires a sharp pickup in second-half sales, and competitive pricing for select U.S. classes could support wheat demand and prices.
After 497 past report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.5% to +2.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.