
China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said soybean prices rose 6% from January to November 2018 and eased in December despite lower US imports. The ministry expects adequate supply from Brazil, Argentina and domestic planting this year.
Ample import alternatives from Brazil and Argentina suggest China can keep buying soybeans without US supply, limiting upside for US soybean and meal prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.