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France's Finance Bill removed a renewables subsidy for palm oil used in biofuels, effective January 2020, and President Macron signed it on December 28. Malaysia's minister has written to French officials calling the move a ban.
The EU also approved RED certification for US soybeans, which could displace palm oil.
Higher biofuel input costs in France reduce palm oil demand in the EU biodiesel market, a bearish factor for palm oil. Preferential EU certification for US soy could shift vegetable oil demand toward soybean oil.
palmoilmonitor.orgKhalil Hegarty, Pierre Bois d’EnghienJan 9, 2019After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
