
Pakistani urea sales fell 21% month over month in January 2019 to about 564,000 tons, mainly due to seasonal slowing of sowing. Sales were up 5% year over year, and urea inventory dropped 59% to 71,000 tons.
DAP stocks stood at 488,000 tons.
Seasonal demand declines reduce near-term urea import needs in Pakistan, which is bearish for regional urea prices. The sharp drop in inventories partly offsets that pressure.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.